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Social media analytics for decision-making
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18 Apr 11 Crisis mapping – California private schools and affiliations

I’m finding myself spending more and more time on something I used to do – emergency and disaster preparation and response.  Many years ago, I was a paramedic and headed a volunteer team for the Salvation Army’s Emergency Disaster Services in western Pennsylvania.  About six years ago, I returned to the field a bit by getting involved in critical incident stress management, went last year to Haiti with a medical team after the earthquake, and I’m working with the Santa Clara Fire Department on citizen preparedness.

Schools are important because they house a vulnerable population, children, and because they often end up being used as shelters when a major disaster hits.  I’ve been working on mapping California schools by pulling data from state web sites, adding geographic tagging as needed and putting it into a format that can be mapping with various tools, including Google Maps.  Below is a link to a map using data I’ve stored in Google Fusion Tables, which allows you to see all of California’s private schools and filter by their religious affiliation, which is helpful because churches often are also involved in disaster response.

California Private Schools – Note that you can zoom in, pan, etc., to view a particular area of the state.  You can also click on the icons to get detailed information about the school.

The underlying data is available as a Fusion Table.

16 Jan 10 Lesley Arnett Tujague

The memorial for my sister was yesterday.  I’m not sure I’ll leave this page on the blog in the long run, but couldn’t quite figure out where to make it available otherwise.  Another small bit of gratitude for technology: we decided fairly late in the process to share a few family memories of her at the service.  One of them arrived by text message just in time.  That was good.  Here is her story as it appeared in the local paper.

Lesley Arnett Tujague died at Pardee Hospital on January 4, 2010 after a short illness. She was born Lesley Ruth Arnett on April 16, 1962 in Pittsburgh, Pa., and grew up in nearby Edgewood, graduating from The Ellis School and Chatham College in Pittsburgh, where she majored in English and Russian literature with a minor in art history.  She earned teaching credentials from California University of Pennsylvania.  During her Chatham years, she was an exchange student at Berea College in Kentucky. For nine years in St. Thomas, USVI, Lesley taught English at Charlotte Amalie High School, taught ballet, created award-winning Carnival costumes and grew orchids.

Lesley came to North Carolina in 1996 and lived here until she was married and moved to Pittsburgh in 2001.  She returned to North Carolina with her daughter in 2007.  A talented seamstress and designer, she created historically accurate costumes for re-enactments and local theater productions.

Lesley is survived by her five-year-old daughter Sarah, her parents, Will and Pat Arnett of Hendersonville, her sister Susie Nivin and husband David of Santa Barbara and their children James and Heather, her brothers John Arnett of Hendersonville and Nick Arnett and his wife Cindy of Santa Clara, California and their daughter Carrie.

A memorial service will be held on Friday, January 15th at the First United Methodist Church of Hendersonville at 12:30 p.m.  Children are welcome. In lieu of flowers, gifts may be made to the Sarah Yvette Tujague Educational Trust or the charity of your choice.

Here is a poem that my father, Will Arnett, wrote and read at the service.

A Message from Lesley

On a cold cold winter day
I suddenly found my fairy-angelic wings
And had to fly away at once,
Too fast to even say goodbye to my lovely lovely Sarah
Or Mom or Dad, or Susan and John and Nick,
Too fast to fold my wings and raise my arms
To wave goodbye or give a last important hug to everyone.
But I know you will recall
That as child, teacher, and loving mother
Arms for me were never for fighting back
Or holding swords and guns
Or even mainly for making pretty clothes
Or mixing cookie dough
On every mile I drove I tried to say to everyone
Arms are for hugging.

Arms are for Hugging

Lesley's car

If teeth are made for chewing
And wings are strong for flying
If feet are made for running
And the tongue for speaking words of love,
It’s no less true for me
Arms are for hugging.

05 Jan 10 In grief, I am grateful

My sister Lesley died yesterday.  She was the baby of the four of us and the mother of our five-year-old niece, Sarah.  She went to the doctor last Wednesday feeling short of breath, which turned out to be the first sign of an infection that got into her bloodstream, which her body couldn’t fight off.  I hurt more than I ever have.

In the darkness of our family’s grief, the darkness of what the future holds, I am grateful for many things.  I am grateful that Lesley’s Facebook page helped me to find her friends.  I am so grateful for all the messages of support, compassion and empathy that I am getting on my Facebook page and in emails.  Technology is helping us connect when we most need it.

Though it is hard to even write about it, I am grateful that my parents were able to use the Internet to find pictures to show Sarah what an intensive care unit looks like, so that she might not be overwhelmed when she saw her mommy for the last time.

In the midst of all of this, I am talking to a social media company about joining them as a product manager.  Although it is a hard time, I’m realizing that more than ever, that’s what I want to do, to be part of a community of people who are committed to using technology to build and nurture communities.

16 Dec 09 Technical support is not customer support

During the 20-plus years I’ve been involved in on-line communities (a/k/s “social media”), I’ve been involved in several kinds of “support” communities.  Some were technical support, with a simple primary goal – solve customer problems at the lowest possible cost.  Others have had fuzzier purposes.  After a friend’s son was diagnosed with brain cancer, he and I became involved in on-line cancer support groups, whose intent is quite different.  This crystallized for me when I joined another kind of medical support group recently, with the goal of doing some conversation analysis.  The signup page asked me to identify myself as a patient, medical professional or former medical professional.  I’m not a patient or a medical professional, but many, many years ago I was a paramedic, which gave me some  familiarity with the illness in question, so I chose “former medical professional.”  In response, I received an email that included this gem:

Unfortunately, we have had some bad experiences with some who believed they were here to teach or lecture. I would like to make it clear that while we welcome you and your medical expertise as well as your input, we are not interested in a forum where questions are asked and the medical visitors are quick with a medical answer. Such a forum has a tendency to stifle input from those who need to express themselves the most. “

Fascinating – people who are quick to provide medical answers tend to stifle the conversation.  This makes no sense in the context of technical support, but it makes perfect sense in crisis intervention. When people go through a trauma, it can be counter-productive to try to make things better.  Okay, that probably sounds crazy, but the reality is that trying to “fix” what’s wrong often leaves people feeling unsupported even when it is the “right” answer.  What people in crisis also need is a safe place to tell their story, which is very much what crisis intervention is about.  ”Safe,” in this context, means that their story will be accepted as it is, with no criticism or quick fix.  Trauma changes people; medicine doesn’t change them back.  Instead, they need to figure out how to live with their illness, which quick fixes ignore.

So yes, it makes sense that in a support community whose primary purpose is human, not technical, support, the kind of response that is totally appropriate in a technical support community is wrong. Here’s the short version of what I believe this implies: “new” social media – Facebook, Twitter, blog comments – are lousy platforms for emotional support, because they are really not good for story-sharing, at least not the kind of sharing that people do in support communities for serious illnesses and other trauma.  Web forums, mailing lists and Usenet (is Usenet still working?  haven’t looked in a while) are much more appropriate.  Twitter and Facebook are fine for sharing factual tidbits, pictures and videos and so forth, but not for holding conversations that really help people get to know each other in a way that is meaningful to the challenges of illness, etc.  Facebook, Twitter, etc., are much more about digitally enabling your existing relationships, not creating new and deep ones.

The new social media also fail to offer the kind of desirable compartmentalization that a support community does.  The default behavior is to post items in public.  That doesn’t create a safe environment for telling your story, if only because many of those friends and acquaintances just can’t relate to your need for a supportive community.  If the topic is my cancer (hypothetically, I’m not sick, thank heaven), I want to talk to other cancer victims and survivors, perhaps some medical professionals and allied health people… but not everybody I know.  I may not want my illness to be a complete secret, but there are likely to be people who I’d rather not share it with, even though they are “friends” in social media.

The next time somebody talks to me about a “support” community, I’m going to be thinking, is this a community where people want to tell their stories to get a quick answer, or is is it a one where they mainly want be in a place where the others know what they’re experiencing.

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14 Dec 09 Analyzing conversations

I’ve crawled out of my hole, blog-wise, today to write about conversation analysis.  I’ve been calling myself a social media analyst for a long time, but the specific area that most interests me, around which I’ve started a couple of companies and received several patents, is better described as conversation analysis.

There are a bunch of companies that offer social media monitoring services that claim to “monitor the conversation” that social media has begun to enable among organizations and their clients, customers and other constituents.  A huge shortcoming of them, as I see it, is that they really are little more than digital clipping services.  All they find is what is indexed by search engines and when they find it, they are looking at web pages, not conversations.  They miss a lot.

They completely miss the conversations that take place on mailing lists and in web forums that aren’t friendly to search engine crawlers.  When they do find digital conversations, they don’t analyze them structurally to identify individual posts, replies, timestamps and so forth.  This means that they aren’t really getting a valid picture of how many people are talking (perhaps the most important metric), how many topics there are, how many people are engaged in each topic and other metrics that are only possible when analysis looks beyond the single web page.  Of course, they don’t do this because it is hard!

It is probably an impossible task to keep up with all of the digital conversation platforms so that this type of analysis could be as thorough as Google’s web page indexing.  There are dozens of open-source and commercial web community forum platforms.  Some are easier to analyze than others; some are probably totally impractical to automatically analyze.  Some are deliberately quite private and invisible.  Still, I have no doubt that conversation analysis is worthwhile, if only to solve the fundamental problem of listening to an enormous group of people whose concerns and viewpoints matter to you – your customers, if no one else.

Most of my work over the last nine years, aside from detours into necessary infrastructure building, has been focused on this challenge – how do you summarize millions of postings in digital communities?  How do you summarize the topics under discussion, how those topics are changing over time, how many people care about those topics and so forth.  Automatic summarization has never made an intuitive leap, so part of the summarization challenge is to automatically select a tractable number of typical phrases, sentences or postings for a human being to read, a selection that should enable the kind of leap of recognition that a computer cannot.

Anything “social” is about relationships.  My goal continues to be to use technology to discover what I can about the relationships among people, brands, companies, events and so forth.   Along those lines, I’ll be writing some more blog posts in the next few days.  One will be on the difference between customer support and technical support.  Another will take a look at how a conversation between a large organization and its constituents might be structured – how today’s (and yesterday’s) social media fit together.

17 Aug 09 I’m not so sure about the Twitter Retweet API

For a long time, I’ve thought that retweeting was the most interesting thing about Twitter – and not just explicit retweeting, but also implicit retweeting (people posting the same URL around the same time, which may or may not really be an intentional retweet).  I’ve thought of them as similar to links in hypertext and like others, I created a site that analyzes relationships among people by looking at their retweeting patterns.

This may sound odd, but making a user action easier for everyone is not always a good idea.  An overly simple explanation for this is that the less effort it is to do something, the less significant the action becomes.  That doesn’t mean that everything should be hard, it means there’s an optimal level of difficulty v. reward in social behavior.  I’d rather not see Twitter encouraging a particular kind of social connection until the structures it supports are better understood.  Has anybody really shown the value of retweeting in creating strong social networks?  If so, it it clear that the API would tend to further strengthen them?  I fear that the API is motivated by a more naive assumption – people are doing this anyway, so let’s make it easier.  While that assumption is fine for things like soap, it isn’t right for social behavior.

I’ve been doing social media analytics for a long time.  One of the things I’m always trying to measure is how much energy went into a particular user behavior or action.  For example, a message that contains more original words took more energy than a shorter one.  A message that quotes more than one person takes more energy than one that quotes just one person.  A message that contains a URL probably took more energy than one that doesn’t.  If the URL is unique in the medium, it probably took more energy to create than a URL that already existed.

If the effect of the retweet API is to make retweeting so simple that the act of retweeting loses much of its significance, that’s a net loss.  More people might retweet, but less of them will be deeply engaged.  Social systems should never have the goal of getting everyone to the same level of engagement.  It is human nature for some to be opinion leaders, but they don’t easily emerge when “playing the game” is made easy for everyone.  Unfortunately, the idea of getting as many people as possible to be as active as possible is a deeply engrained habit in the media industry.  But any successful community manager or analyst will tell you that it is far more important to pay attention and nurture the “core community” that exists in any social network.

The sweet spot for ease of retweeting lies somewhere between it being so hard that only the most committed users do it (and the current manual method is far better than that) and being so easy that everybody essenially “votes” on everything, which would be bad.  Even though that sounds like democracy, it is really demarchy.  Seen any successful demarchies?  I didn’t think so.

I’m not so sure that Twitter isn’t already in the sweet spot and the API is going to drive it away from there.  I suspect that Twitter and those who analyze it haven’t had enough time to really figure out how it will fit into the social networking ecosystem in the long run, so any decsions about this are premature.  I’d rather see them continue make the social network easier to analyze, not just for the sake of analytics, but because the results of analytics are getting fed back into the network, which makes the network smarter and smarter.

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18 Jul 09 Developers unite – throw off the yoke of Twitter centralization and publish your tweetstreams!

“At the end of the day, Twitter is a prototype.”  That’s a comment on Dave Winer’s blog by Chuck Shotton, who created one of the first web servers, long before most people had even heard of the Internet. Chuck’s main point is that Twitter is a good idea, but it should be implemented as a distributed system, not a centralized one.

Dead on, Chuck.  I’m not in any way faulting Twitter by agreeing with Chuck.  There are good reasons that they are succeeding where others have failed at microblogging.  It is good that they are demonstrating the broad appeal and usefulness of this kind of communications.  The problem, as Chuck nailed it, is that they are centralized.  Compare this to blogging, which was designed from the start to be decentralized.  There are dozens of blogging platforms that you an run locally, on a rented host or at a site dedicated to hosting blogs.  Choices, choices, choices.  But if you want to tweet, there’s only one way to do it – Twitter.

One reason Twitter succeeded where others failed is that it has a good API and is extremely open when it comes to sharing data.  The default, unlike most other social media companies, is that all of your data is open to everyone, except for direct messages.  That’s fairly radical and perhaps more than anything else, has inspired developers to create many, many Twitter applications.

I caught the bug myself, attracted by the volume of data that is easily available.  I threw together TwURLed News, not with the idea of building a company around it, but because I wanted to see how well something like it would work.  It wasn’t very hard to built, has a back end that requires a BSD machine worth maybe $1,000 and the front end runs on a very low-cost hosting provider.  Amazing.

Still, I can’t believe this is the future of microblogging.  Instead of running applications that use the Twitter API on our desktops, it seems much more likely that we will end up running something like the Twitter API ourselves, which talks peer-to-peer instead of client-server.

Consider how Twitter and Google have opposing information flow.  The Google model is that people publish information on web servers, then Google’s robots gather the data. To access Google, you use a standard web client.  In the Twitter world, nothing gets published until and unless it is pushed to Twitter’s servers and a lot of the people who read Twitter-published information do so using custom clients.  I guess you can rationalize this by arguing that Twitter is getting its users to do all the work that Google’s robots would otherwise do, but that’s a terrible idea.  As Chuck pointed out, it doesn’t scale.

Consider also how different Twitter’s data flow is from blogging.  When you post a blog entry, you’re usually also publishing it as an RSS feed.  Outfits like Technorati (and Google, of course) send robots out to read those feeds and make them available via the web or newsreaders.  People call Twitter microblogging, but instead of encouraging people to tweet locally and make the tweetstream available to anybody who wants to retrieve it from your site, as with RSS, Twitter says no, you have to send your tweets to Twitter and then they become available to the public.  The pain of that centralization is already hurting Twitter, as developers complain about being unable to get even a single user’s entire tweet history, about being unable to search more than a few weeks’ data and other limitations.

So, here’s a thought.  How about if every Twitter application developer throws off the yoke of centralization and adds local (or hosted, via XML-RPC) RSS publishing as an option?  This is relatively simple for desktop apps – it could use the same mechanisms as RSS. It could actually be an RSS feed tagged as a tweetstream, so that anything that reads it will know that no entry will be more than 140 characters, expect hashtags, “@” screen names, etc.  Phone apps could use a proxy to do the same while continuing to publish the tweetstream on Twitter.

Imagine the services that could bloom if everybody’s tweetstream were available without haing to rely exclusively on Twitter and its limited resources?  In no time at all, we’d see comprehensive indexing and other value-added services.

So, why not?  I’m not suggesting anyone abandon Twitter, I’m just saying that microblogging will take off much faster if Twitter developers realize that they don’t have to depend only on Twitter to publish their tweets.

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17 Jul 09 What’s really wrong with URL shorteners

Services that shorten URLs – bit.ly, tinyurl.com, etc – have been criticized for contributing to “linkrot” (they stop working if the underlying service goes away), obscuring link destinations for nefarious purposes, violating privacy by allowing increased link tracking and using network resources due to redirection.  Those are valid concerns, but none compares to the information opportunity lost as shortened URLs become unique.

URLs in real-time media – blogs, microblogs, etc. – can be the foundation of near-real-time search relevance ranking.  This is simple in principle.  When a lot of people (or an intelligently selected set of people) suddenly start citing links to a given page or site, there is obviously something of interest there.  That is the kind of analysis that Google’s PageRank and similar algorithms use.  Each cite is a signifcant “vote” for the page.  When they occur in real-time media (v. static web pages), it provides a relevance metric that Google and its competitors aren’t touching yet.  The big search engines are not yet doing much in this domain.  Nobody has emerged as a leader in doing it comprehensively. 

In other words, as many people have pointed out, URLs in blogs, microblogs, etc., are the foundation of something like PageRank in near realtime.  But they become increasingly useless as they are uniquely shortened.

It would be interesting to figure out a motivation for the URL shorteners to offer comprehensive resolution to their APIs (given a long URL, return ALL shortened versions).  I can’t quite see why they would do that, but perhaps developers with a vision for real-time search (which probably is more correctly called monitoring rather than search) could lobby the shorteners to add that capability… or even create a shared repository as a community project that would also solve the linkrot problem.

One more thought… Twitter and others who do the shortened themselves have all of this data for the URLs they shorten.  As large customers of the shortening services, they have more influence than the individual developers, so perhaps that’s where the lobbying effort should focus.

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30 Jun 09 Measuring influence – it is mostly indirect

Possibly by coincidence, this week’s Social Media Club question of the week is about measuring influence in social networking… and I just wrote a bit about that topic in the Web Analytics group:

On Mon, Jun 29, 2009 at 8:07 AM, Peter Kristof wrote:

Can anyone point me to some good resources (articles, blogs, tools, vendors,etc.) for research on measurement of social media / Web 2.0?

I invented some of the original buzz measurement stuff (now owned by Nielsen/Buzzmetrics) …

Analytics progress in this field is slow – it depends very much on understanding language, which is fundamentally lousy and not progressing very fast.  There is enormous ambiguity in the behavior and text it measures, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone in web analytics.  Despite all the talk around sentiment and such, I’m still convinced that the most important metric is how many people are talking about a topic; any system that doesn’t focus on that is probably off the mark.  No. 2. is how influential those people could be.  I say “could be” because generally speaking, we only can identify influencers by their potential to influence (because they participate in a lot of discussions, across venues) than their actual influence.  Finally, I always pay attention to how such systems summarize what’s going on in social networks.  Two million postings and here are the 10 that are best representative – how did you pick those?

Beware of cool visualizations… any sort of self-organizing mapping of social media space usually will not to scale well.  There are some very hard graph problems behind them.  I think most vendors will admit that the eye candy is more useful for selling services than for delivering intelligence.

In terms of where things are going, I think we’re seeing more innovations in packaging and pricing, away from the big expensive solutions to smaller, lower-cost tools, rather than breakthroughs in the technology of measurement.  I suspect that will remain true for a while, if only because social media itself is evolving so fast that what works today is likely to be obsolete soon.

Analytics progress in this field is slow – it depends very much on understanding language, which is fundamentally lousy and not progressing very fast.  There is enormous ambiguity in the behavior and text it measures, which shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone in web analytics.  Despite all the talk around sentiment and such, I’m still convinced that the most important metric is how many people are talking about a topic; any system that doesn’t focus on that is probably off the mark.  No. 2. is how influential those people could be.  I say “could be” because generally speaking, we only can identify influencers by their potential to influence (because they participate in a lot of discussions, across venues) than their actual influence.  Finally, I always pay attention to how such systems summarize what’s going on in social networks.  Two million postings and here are the 10 that are best representative – how did you pick those?
Beware of cool visualizations… any sort of self-organizing mapping of social media space usually will not to scale well.  There are some very hard graph problems behind them.  I think most vendors will admit that the eye candy is more useful for selling services than for delivering intelligence.
In terms of where things are going, I think we’re seeing more innovations in packaging and pricing, away from the big expensive solutions to smaller, lower-cost tools, rather than breakthroughs in the technology of measurement.  I suspect that will remain true for a while, if only because social media itself is evolving so fast that what works today is likely to be obsolete soon.
Nick

15 Jun 09 Reputation portability and social network APIs

The idea of portable reputations in digital media has been around for many years, but not much has happened. The idea is fairly simple – create a means of taking credibility (or the lack of it) from one digital community to another, so that you’re not starting from zero each time you join a new one. When Usenet and CompuServe were the only games in town, this didn’t really matter, but with the explosion of social media in the last few years, it seems like reputation portability is becoming more attractive and practical. There are big obstacles, starting with the definition of terms.

“Reputation” is in the family of vague terms like “engagement,” “influence” and “community.” They sound very impressive. “People ith high positive reputation scores generate community engagement” sounds like one of those phrases that expensive consultants toss around at industry conferences, loaded with implications and empty of specific meaning. Nevertheless, reputation means something, even if we can’t agree what it is. It has at least two components – a value and a valence. For example, honesty is part of reputation; when its valence is negative, we call it dishonesty. Of course, personal reputation in digital communities has more to do with accuracy, interesting-ness and opinion leadership than black-and-white issues like honesty.

Even if everybody agrees on what reputation can mean, the way it happens varies from one community to another.  Take “following” relationships, for example.  Following somebody on Facebook requires their permission, but not on Twitter.  Similarly, the way Twitter is dominated by “open” accounts means that being quoted (retweeted) on Twitter is more likely to happen and therefore possibly less significant than elsewhere.  Some communities have explicit voting and scoring systems that rank people, posts, pictures and so forth.  Few mean the same things, especially when they are based on raw scores from communities of vastly different sizes.  If nothing else, this means that nobody is going to come up with a definitive reputation ranking system, which is probably just fine.  There are many possible dimensions to reputation and various purposes for it, so I would expect that it’s a good thing if many systems arise.  I’m wondering if they will start to arise by way of the rising number of social media APIs.

Open APIs not only allow third parties to experiment with reputation scoring systems for each social network – for example, all the Twitter influence scoring systems – they allow third parties to try out reputation mashups, which implies some sort of reputation portability.  FriendFeed, being a social network mashup itself, is the kind of service that enables this.  Anybody who has claimed more than one social network identity on FriendFeed potentially could bring their reputation from one to the other, since the links on FriendFeed tell third parties that the two identities (a/k/a accounts or profiles) belong to the same person.  For example, if I have a large following on Twitter, then sign up for Facebook, a third party could inform Facebook users that I’m worth following, even though I haven’t done a thing yet on Facebook.  That capability becomes particularly interesting in terms of competition between social networking sites.  When the next Twitter comes along, whatever that might be, people may be able to get deeply engaged in it faster because of Twitter’s open API… assuming the new guys also have an open API, of course.  Some of this is already happening between partnering social media sites, where you are invited to bring your friends along.  That’s only mildly interesting because it doesn’t happen between direct competitors.  When the APIs generally support reputation-related data and third parties are the ones who make the marriages, so to speak, the world becomes very interesting.  That’s not just because of what you can do, but also because of what it makes harder – spamming.

Spammers will have a much harder time in a system of shared reputation data precisely because the social media networks are somewhat different from each other.  Spamming is harder on some, easier on others, so if somebody shows up only on the “easy” ones, that’s a strong clue that they are not legitimate.  If my follower relationships on Twitter are people with whom I have some sort of genuine relationship, I would expect a high percentage of them to be present on other social networks.  Open APIs let third parties measure the differences and make some estimates of the likelihood of legitimacy.  This feels to me something like the kind of robustness that arises from genetic diversity – yes, you might be able to conquer an individual or two, but you probably can’t beat the whole ecosystem at its own game.

One thing that becomes harder in this environment is creation of multiple, distinct identities.  Some will argue that people want to keep their personal, work and perhaps entertainment identities independent of one another.  The idea is that if you get your jollies in some socially embarrassing manner, you don’t want your boss or potential employer to find out.  Or, more legitimately, perhaps you are part of a 12-step program and you want to participate anonymously, or more correctly, pseudonymously, since you’ll want to create and use a pseudonym for that purpose.  I’ll respond to the first idea with a motto that is used in recovery – “you’re only as sick as your secrets.”  The more I consider the idea of having distinct, private identities for work, personal life and whatever else you think you need them for, the more I think it is rubbish.  Unless you’re spying for the CIA, there really isn’t much need to compartmentalize your life that way.  And I mean “compartmentalize” in the bad way, really.

I rarely truly believe anything I write like this until I’ve seen some data, so my next step will be to explore some of the APIs to see what I can tell about myself and others through multiple APIs.  I’m hoping that will be the subject of a blog post in a few days.